The Indian stock market is poised for a positive opening on Monday, buoyed by favorable signals from global markets. Recent gains in Asian equities and a rally on Wall Street last week, propelled by easing US-China trade disputes, set an optimistic tone. Investors are keenly awaiting a slew of critical market developments this week, including quarterly earnings reports, geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, and monthly auto sales figures.
Market Outlook Following Global Trends
On Friday, the Indian stock market experienced a setback, driven by profit booking in the wake of rising India-Pakistan tensions linked to a recent terror attack in Pahalgam. The BSE Sensex dipped by 588.90 points, or 0.74%, closing at 79,212.53, while the Nifty 50 fell 207.35 points, or 0.86%, settling at 24,039.35. Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital, noted that the heightened geopolitical risks led investors to quickly unwind their positions, resulting in a 6% spike in the India VIX, indicating increased market volatility.
Key Global Indicators Impacting Indian Markets
Asian markets were on the rise Monday, with investors eagerly anticipating potential stimulus measures from China and updates on US trade negotiations. Highlights include:
- MSCI’s Asia-Pacific Index: Up by 0.1%
- Nikkei 225: Increased by 0.82%
- Topix: Gained 1.11%
- South Korea’s Kospi: Rose 0.32%
- Kosdaq: Climbed 0.29%
Additionally, the Gift Nifty was hovering around the 24,232 level, reflecting a premium of nearly 93 points compared to the previous close, suggesting a favorable start for Indian indices.
Wall Street Performance Boosts Sentiment
The US stock market closed positively on Friday, marking a strong weekly performance amid signs of easing trade tensions with China. Key indices included:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up 20.10 points to 40,113.50
- S&P 500: Increased by 40.44 points to 5,525.21
- Nasdaq Composite: Surged 216.90 points to 17,382.94
Notable movements included a 1.7% increase in Alphabet shares and a 4.3% rise in Nvidia’s stock. In contrast, Intel’s stock fell by 6.7%, while Tesla saw a remarkable 9.8% jump.
Trade Relations Between US and China
Recent developments suggest a willingness from the US to de-escalate its trade tensions with China. President Trump indicated ongoing tariff discussions, while China’s recent exemptions of certain US imports from high tariffs hint at a possible thaw in relations. However, China has been quick to downplay any claims of active negotiations.
Reliance Industries’ Q4 Performance
In corporate news, Reliance Industries Ltd reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit, reaching ₹19,407 crore for Q4 FY25, up from ₹18,951 crore in the corresponding period last year. Their consolidated revenue surged nearly 10% to ₹2,64,573 crore. Notably, the EBITDA grew by 3.6%, while a recommended dividend of ₹5.50 per share was also announced.
Tax Collections and Commodity Prices
The provisional net direct tax collection for FY25 narrowly missed the target, with figures showing a 15.59% year-on-year growth. Meanwhile, gold prices have eased slightly as trade tensions cool, with spot gold prices dropping 0.3% to $3,309.31 per ounce.
In summary, the Indian stock market’s trajectory this week will heavily depend on the unfolding geopolitical landscape, corporate earnings, and international market cues. Investors are advised to stay informed and cautiously optimistic as they navigate these developments.
