The Indian stock market is poised for a cautious opening on Monday, as benchmark indices such as Sensex and Nifty 50 face mixed signals from global markets. With Asian markets showing varied performances and the US stock market closing predominantly lower over the weekend, investors are particularly attentive to significant developments. Key factors influencing market sentiment include China’s loan prime rate announcement, ongoing US-Iran negotiations, and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions.

Market Overview: Sensex and Nifty 50 Expectations

With the Indian stock market closed last Friday for Good Friday, anticipation is building for the upcoming trading sessions. On Thursday, the market experienced a robust rally, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. The Sensex surged by 1,508.91 points, or 1.96%, finishing at 78,553.20, while the Nifty 50 climbed 414.45 points, or 1.77%, to close at 23,851.65.

Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, commented on the Nifty 50’s current positioning near its previous swing high of 23,800. He emphasized the importance of earnings reports from major players like Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank. Mishra recommends a strategy of "buying on dips," particularly in rate-sensitive sectors, while advising selectivity in other areas.

Global Market Influences

Asian Markets Update

Asian markets displayed mixed trends on Monday following China’s recent loan prime rate decision. The Nikkei 225 in Japan fell by 1.16%, and the Topix index decreased by 1.24%. Conversely, South Korea’s Kospi index edged up by 0.14%, while the Kosdaq rose by 0.13%. Notably, the markets in Hong Kong and Australia remained closed due to the Easter holiday.

US Market Performance

The US stock market’s performance was also noteworthy, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.33% to 39,142.23. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a slight gain of 0.13%, closing at 5,282.70, while the Nasdaq ended slightly lower at 16,286.45. Stocks such as Eli Lilly saw substantial gains, increasing by 14%, whereas UnitedHealth’s shares plummeted 22%.

Upcoming Earnings Reports

Investors are keeping a close eye on the Q4 earnings reports from major corporations:

• Infosys: The company’s net profit for Q4FY25 saw a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter increase, reaching ₹7,033 crore, although revenue dipped by 2% to ₹40,925 crore.
• HDFC Bank: This bank reported a 6.7% year-on-year rise in net profit to ₹17,616 crore, with net interest income growing by 10.3% to ₹32,070 crore.
• ICICI Bank: The bank’s net profit surged 18% year-on-year to ₹12,629.58 crore, with a net interest margin rising to 4.41%.

Key Global Developments

China’s Loan Prime Rate

China has elected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) remains at 3.1%, while the five-year LPR is steady at 3.6%.

European Central Bank Actions

The European Central Bank (ECB) has reduced interest rates for the seventh time this year, cutting by 25 basis points to 2.4%. This decision reflects concerns about economic growth impacted by US tariffs, leading to expectations of further policy easing.

US-Iran Negotiations

In diplomatic news, the US and Iran are reportedly making progress toward establishing a framework for a potential nuclear deal, as described by Iran’s foreign minister.

Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Efforts

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has proposed a 30-day pause in long-range strikes targeting civilian infrastructure, amid accusations against Russian forces for violating an Easter truce.

Currency and Commodity Insights

• The US dollar has hit a three-year low against the euro and is struggling against other currencies, which could impact global trade dynamics.
• Gold prices have surged, reaching record highs due to a weakened dollar and rising trade war concerns, with spot gold gaining 1% to $3,361.53 an ounce.
• Crude oil prices have also seen a decline, with Brent crude slipping more than 1% to $67.21 a barrel amid ongoing negotiations regarding US-Iran relations.

As traders prepare for the week ahead, they will closely monitor these developments, which could significantly influence market trajectories.