The Indian stock market is poised for a potentially positive start on Monday, buoyed by encouraging trends from global markets. After a robust rally on Wall Street, where major indices recorded significant gains, Asia followed suit with upward movements. Investors are keenly watching for critical developments this week, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement, tariff decisions from former President Donald Trump, and various macroeconomic data releases that could influence market sentiment.
Market Overview: Anticipating a Positive Opening
Following a holiday closure on Friday due to Holi 2025, the Indian equity benchmarks, Sensex and Nifty 50, are set to open higher. Last Thursday, however, the markets faced a dip, marking a fifth consecutive day of losses. The Sensex fell by 200.85 points (0.27%), closing at 73,828.91, while the Nifty 50 dropped 73.30 points (0.33%), settling at 22,397.20.
According to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, the market is likely to experience volatility and sector rotation, largely influenced by global cues and investor caution ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday.
Global Market Signals Impacting Indian Stocks
Asian markets are trading positively, reflecting the strong performance on Wall Street. Notable movements include:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225: Up 0.99%
- Topix Index: Increased by 1.10%
- South Korea’s Kospi: Gained 1.23%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Futures: Indicating a robust start
Additionally, the Gift Nifty is trading around the 22,567 mark, suggesting a gap-up opening with a premium of approximately 123 points compared to the previous Nifty futures close.
Wall Street’s Impact on Global Sentiment
On Friday, US markets surged, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks. Key highlights include:
- Dow Jones: Increased by 674.62 points (1.65%) to 41,488.19
- S&P 500: Jumped 117.42 points (2.13%) to 5,638.94
- Nasdaq Composite: Rose 451.07 points (2.61%) to 17,754.09
Tech giants such as Tesla and Nvidia saw their shares climb by 3.9% and 5.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall market enthusiasm.
Consumer Sentiment and Economic Indicators
Consumer sentiment in the US took a downward turn in March, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 57.9, down from 64.7 in February. This decline was unexpected, as economists had predicted a fall to 63.1. Additionally, inflation expectations surged, with a 12-month outlook now at 4.9% compared to 4.3% last month.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policies
In international news, tensions continue in Ukraine as Russia launched drone strikes on Kyiv, prompting responses from local air defense systems. Meanwhile, China is implementing a new plan aimed at boosting domestic consumption, focusing on increasing income and establishing childcare subsidies.
Currency and Commodity Movements
The US dollar is hovering near a five-month low against major currencies. The currency index remains stable at 103.71, while gold prices have seen an uptick, reaching a new high of $3,004.86 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand.
Energy Prices on the Rise
Crude oil prices have risen over 1% as the US commits to ongoing military actions against Yemen’s Houthis. As a result, Brent crude is trading at $71.30 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate is at $67.90.
As the Indian stock market gears up for the day, all eyes will be on how these global cues and domestic factors will play out, influencing investor strategies and market movements.
