U.S. farmers are gearing up for a historic corn harvest in the 2025-26 season, with expectations soaring for both American and South American producers. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released forecasts indicating that while output may reach record highs, global corn ending stocks are set to plunge to their lowest levels in 12 years due to surging demand. This combination of high yield expectations and dwindling supplies suggests a critical year ahead for the corn market.

Record Corn Production on the Horizon

The USDA’s estimates for 2025-26 place global corn ending stocks at 277.8 million metric tons, significantly lower than the anticipated 297.4 million metric tons prior to the report. This marks a 3% decrease from the previous year and a 16% drop from the 2023-24 cycle, signaling a potential shortage not seen since the 2013-14 season.

• Key figures:
  • Global corn stocks-to-use ratio at 18.9%—the lowest since 2012-13.
  • Excluding China, global corn stocks will still reflect a 7% year-on-year increase, though this would still be one of the lowest figures in over a decade.

China’s Impact on Global Corn Stocks

Interestingly, China is playing a pivotal role in the dynamics of global corn inventories. Despite expectations of a record corn yield in China for 2025-26, the growth rate is projected to be the slowest in five years, potentially influencing the global market in unexpected ways. China plans to keep its corn imports stable, contrasting with USDA’s hopes for an increase in imports for 2025-26.

U.S. Corn Supply Outlook

For the U.S., the USDA’s estimate for 2025-26 corn ending stocks stands at 1.8 billion bushels, aligning with the most conservative trade estimates. This prediction arises from a combination of reduced old-crop stocks and a forecast for unprecedented new-crop demand.

• Considerations:
  • Some analysts express skepticism over the demand projections, especially regarding exports, which are anticipated to take a substantial share of U.S. corn usage.
  • Competition from Brazil is expected to intensify as its corn production for both 2024-25 and 2025-26 is expected to exceed previous years.

Yield Expectations and Planting Progress

The USDA forecasts a record yield of 181 bushels per acre for the upcoming season, surpassing last year’s record of 179.3 bushels. The potential for such high yields raises questions about U.S. corn supplies potentially tightening further into 2026.

• Current planting statistics show that U.S. farmers have planted 62% of their corn crop, slightly above average.
• If the planted area increases from 95.3 million acres to 96 million or 97 million, this could significantly boost production, adding up to 282 million bushels to carryout figures.

Looking Ahead

As we approach the summer months, the USDA’s projections highlight the need for favorable weather conditions to ensure a successful harvest. Any adverse weather events could escalate supply concerns quicker than anticipated, putting pressure on the corn market.

Stay tuned as the situation unfolds, and keep an eye on the upcoming USDA reports for the latest insights into U.S. corn production and market trends. The next significant updates will emerge from the USDA’s July supply and demand report, which will integrate June’s area survey results.

The corn market is poised for an intriguing year, filled with opportunities and challenges alike.