As Brazil grapples with its corn supply challenges, conflicting reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Brazil’s own national agency, Conab, have stirred debate among market analysts. Recent data reveals that Brazil’s corn supplies have plummeted to their lowest levels in 25 years, raising questions about the accuracy of crop forecasts and the implications for the global market. While the USDA anticipates a different scenario unfolding in the coming year, the discrepancies between these two agencies highlight the complexities of agricultural forecasting.

Understanding the Discrepancies in Corn Supply Estimates

To grasp the current situation regarding Brazil’s corn supply, it’s essential to recognize the distinct timelines each agency operates under. Conab’s marketing year for corn runs from March to February, concluding on January 31, 2026, while the USDA’s year ends just a month later. This staggered timing influences how each agency presents its stock estimates, with USDA focusing on a more extended period that encompasses multiple local marketing years.

• Conab’s timeline: March 2024 – February 2025
• USDA’s timeline: April 2024 – March 2025

Divergent Crop Production Projections

In its latest report, the USDA maintained its forecast for Brazil’s 2024-25 corn production at 126 million metric tons. However, it did reduce the previous year’s estimate by 3 million tons, bringing it down to 119 million tons. Conversely, Conab slightly raised its projection for the 2024-25 crop to 122.76 million tons, while leaving the prior year’s figure unchanged at 115.7 million tons.

This brings the estimates from both agencies closer, reducing the USDA’s advantage to 6.5 million tons compared to 10.3 million a month prior. It’s important to note that USDA’s production estimates have generally remained higher than Conab’s, maintaining a difference of at least 2.5% over the past four years.

Key Statistics on Brazil’s Corn Stocks

Conab emphasizes the tight supply situation currently, reporting that Brazilian corn stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year are at an unprecedented low of 2 million tons, representing a 1.7% stocks-to-use ratio—the lowest recorded since 1999-2000. The agency predicts a recovery to 5.5 million tons by next January, although this remains below the decade average of 10.5 million tons.

On the other hand, the USDA estimates Brazil’s corn stocks at 7.5 million tons as of the end of February, down from 10 million tons in the previous year. Looking ahead, the USDA projects a dramatic decline in stocks for 2024-25, forecasting them to fall to just under 3 million tons, which would represent a 42-year low.

Export Expectations and Market Implications

The differing projections from Conab and USDA also extend to export expectations. The USDA is optimistic, predicting that Brazil will export about one-third of its corn production over the next two marketing years, while Conab estimates a slightly lower figure of 30%. Recent export data indicates a less-than-abundant supply, as monthly shipments from Brazil have been underwhelming.

The future of Brazilian corn exports is closely tied to the newly sown crops and the upcoming harvest in the United States, the world’s largest corn exporter. As both agencies predict below-average corn supplies at some point this year, the agricultural market is increasingly concerned about dwindling inventories, emphasizing the importance of crop performance in the coming months.

In summary, the ongoing debate between the USDA and Conab regarding Brazil’s corn supply reflects broader uncertainties in agricultural forecasting. With supplies at a historic low and export potential under scrutiny, stakeholders in the agricultural sector must remain vigilant in monitoring these developments.