Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is gearing up to unveil its Q4 financial results today, along with a comprehensive report for the entire fiscal year ending March 31, 2025. Investors and market analysts are keenly observing these results, as expectations indicate a mixed performance across various sectors. While growth is anticipated in the telecom and retail divisions, the oil and gas sector may encounter challenges due to soaring crude oil prices.
Anticipated Highlights of Reliance’s Q4 Results
Stable Yet Mixed Performance
According to Avinash Gorakshakar, head of research at Profitmart Securities, "The Q4 results for Reliance Industries are likely to show stability. However, increased crude oil prices may put pressure on operating profits. The oil and gas sector might remain stagnant, while Jio and the retail segments could witness some growth." Overall, analysts predict a quarter with no significant surprises.
Key Metrics to Monitor
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Consolidated Sales and EBITDA
- RIL’s consolidated revenue is forecasted to increase by 2.6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), reaching ₹2,46,263 crore, compared to ₹2,39,986 crore in the previous quarter.
- The EBITDA is expected to rise slightly by 0.5%, totaling ₹44,002 crore, although the EBITDA margin may contract by 38 basis points, settling at 17.9% from 18.2% QoQ.
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Performance of the Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) Segment
- RIL’s O2C division may report a 14% year-over-year (YoY) drop in EBITDA, remaining flat when compared sequentially. This decline is attributed to weaker product cracks and diminished petrochemical spreads, as noted by Nuvama Institutional Equities.
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Oil and Gas Sector Outlook
- Expected to show a 9% YoY decline in EBITDA, the oil and gas segment is projected to see an 8% QoQ drop, particularly due to reduced output from the KG-D6 block. This occurs even as deepwater gas prices rise by 2% YoY.
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Reliance Jio’s Growth
- Jio is anticipated to achieve a 1.5% QoQ rise in standalone revenue, hitting ₹30,058 crore, thanks to growing subscriber numbers and a slight uptick in Average Revenue Per User (ARPU). The ARPU is expected to increase by 0.7% QoQ, reaching ₹204.8.
- Retail Segment Performance
- The retail division is poised for a robust performance, with an estimated 11% YoY growth in EBITDA, driven by an expanded store footprint and enhanced margins.
Future Considerations for Investors
As RIL prepares to release its financial data, key points of interest for investors will include management insights on margin forecasts, developments in new energy projects, timelines for potential Jio and Reliance Retail listings, crude oil price expectations, the strategy for 5G rollout, and updates on KG-D6 production and exploration initiatives.
As of 9:40 AM, Reliance shares were trading at ₹1,314.50, reflecting a 0.99% increase on the BSE.
For more insights into Reliance Industries and its market strategies, stay tuned for our coverage of the upcoming financial results.
