This week, the broader stock indices faced notable challenges, primarily driven by apprehensions regarding U.S. tariffs. The technology sector was hit the hardest, experiencing a significant drop of nearly 8%, while the metal sector wasn’t far behind with a 7% decline. The capital goods sector also struggled, falling by 4%. Mid-cap and small-cap indices felt the pressure too, recording losses between 1% and 3%. By the end of the week, the Nifty and Bank Nifty closed down 2.5% and 0.50%, respectively.

Weekly Trading Insights

As predicted in last week’s analysis, the Nifty index exhibited a mix of cautious and positive movements, fluctuating around the 23,700 level. Selling pressure persisted, pushing the index downward toward the support zone of 22,800–23,000.

• Key Levels to Watch:
  • A decisive close above 23,800 could ignite buying interest, potentially driving the index toward the 24,500–24,600 range.
  • Conversely, persistent profit-booking around 23,800 suggests underlying weakness, especially since this level coincides with the 200 EMA.

Despite an attempt at a short-covering rally reaching 23,800, the Nifty couldn’t maintain its momentum, finishing below the previous week’s low near 23,300. Technically, the daily candlestick patterns indicate a series of lower highs, reinforcing a bearish outlook.

A close beneath 22,800 on either a weekly or monthly scale could confirm a trend reversal, which may lead the Nifty toward the 22,100–22,200 area, aligning with previous monthly lows. The current options data further supports this cautious sentiment, with a Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.90, reflecting bearish market attitudes.

Upcoming Nifty Projections

For the upcoming week, the expected trading range for the Nifty is between 22,100 and 23,300. Key support is at 21,700, while resistance is set at 23,700.

Bank Nifty Overview

In contrast, the Bank Nifty showed relative resilience, only dropping 0.50%. It successfully maintained its position above the crucial support levels of 50,300–50,500, which also correspond to its previous weekly low and the 200 EMA.

• Long Position Opportunities:
  • As long as the Bank Nifty holds above 50,000 on a weekly closing basis, investors may consider building long positions at a stock-specific level.
  • If support holds, an upward movement towards the 52,000 resistance is plausible.

Conclusion and Support Levels

At present, the Nifty is precariously positioned near its monthly support level of 22,800, signaling potential vulnerability. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty continues to uphold its significant support range of 50,200–50,500.

Support and Resistance Levels for the Coming Week:

• Nifty: Support at 22,100; Resistance at 23,700
• Bank Nifty: Support at 50,000–50,200

Weekly Stock Recommendations

• ICICI Bank: Buy within the range of ₹1320-1325; Stop Loss at ₹1290; Target Price of ₹1370.
• Astral: Buy between ₹1330-1335; Stop Loss at ₹1365; Target Price of ₹1280.
• Prestige Estates Projects: Buy in the range of ₹1110-1120; Stop Loss at ₹1070; Target Price of ₹1180.

As market conditions evolve, it will be crucial for investors to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly.