The Indian stock market faced a significant downturn on Tuesday, as both major indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, plummeted by nearly two percent. This decline marks a shaky start to the 2025-2026 financial year, largely influenced by rising concerns over potential retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite this recent slump, the Nifty 50 managed to close the previous fiscal year with a 5.34% gain, buoyed by a remarkable 6.3% increase in March, its best monthly performance in over a year.
Market Resilience Amid Global Concerns
The Bank Nifty index exhibited considerable strength, primarily driven by a resurgence in financial stocks throughout March 2025.
- Investors have been taking advantage of undervalued shares.
- Foreign inflows have shown signs of recovery.
- Economic indicators have begun to improve.
According to Rahul Ghose, CEO of Hedged.in, this rebound is a positive sign for the banking sector as expectations rise for potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Additionally, credit growth is anticipated to rise, with forecasts estimating a 12-13% increase for FY2026, especially propelled by demand in the services and retail sectors.
Nifty 50 Forecast
In terms of technical analysis, Ghose advises caution regarding the Nifty 50’s recent performance. The index formed a classic Doji candle pattern on the weekly chart, indicating indecision among investors.
- Resistance Levels: 24,000 – 24,500
- Support Levels: 23,400 – 23,000
“While the Nifty has recently broken a pattern of lower highs and lows, suggesting a potential shift towards sideways trading, the upcoming earnings season and global economic policies will be crucial in determining the market’s next move,” Ghose explained.
He also highlighted that the Bank Nifty has resistance levels at 52,000 – 52,500 and support around 51,000 – 50,600.
Stocks to Watch for Long-term Growth
Ghose identified five stocks that are well-positioned for long-term investment, based on their strong fundamentals and favorable technical indicators.
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ITC Ltd
- Return on Equity (ROE): 28.33%
- Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.00%
- Price Volatility: 19.87%
- ITC’s stock shows robust support between ₹320 – ₹360, making it an appealing option for long-term investors.
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HDFC Bank
- Continues to lead as a top private sector bank with a focus on digital transformation.
- The stock has recently shown a morning star candlestick formation, suggesting it may break into new highs after a period of consolidation.
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Tata Motors
- Currently trading near ₹580 – ₹600, following a drop from ₹1,180.
- Though facing short-term uncertainty due to tariffs, its long-term prospects remain strong due to a growing electric vehicle portfolio and improving earnings.
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Infosys
- Its stock is currently in a sideways trend, approaching support levels of ₹1,480 – ₹1,360.
- Experts believe that this consolidation phase will likely lead to an upward breakout.
- Siemens
- The stock has corrected from its peak of ₹8,000 to around ₹5,200, with strong support around ₹5,300 – ₹5,200.
- With a solid order book and focus on high-margin projects, Siemens stands out as a solid investment in India’s industrial landscape.
Navigating Market Volatility
For investors, keeping an eye on global trends and economic shifts will be vital for navigating potential market fluctuations. As Rahul Ghose suggests, understanding the broader economic context will be essential for making informed investment decisions in this dynamic environment.
With these insights, investors can better position themselves for the opportunities that lie ahead in the Indian stock market.
