The Indian stock market showed signs of optimism in early trading on Friday, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex indices recording modest gains. This uptick follows the announcement from the United States to temporarily suspend significant reciprocal tariffs, although the lingering tensions in US-China trade relations have moderated the overall enthusiasm. By 11:47 IST, the Nifty 50 had risen by 2.09%, reaching 22,872.65, while the Sensex increased by 2.03%, hitting 75,354.67. The previous day’s trading was halted due to a local holiday in India.

US Tariff Suspension Impact

Wall Street experienced a boost on Wednesday after President Trump announced a pause on reciprocal tariffs exceeding 10% for most countries, excluding China. However, these gains were partly offset on Thursday as trade issues between the US and China resurfaced. Notably, on April 2, Trump had implemented extensive tariffs affecting around 60 countries exporting to the US, with stricter levies targeting nations like India. This move could impact a wide range of products, from shrimp to steel.

Market Analysis from Experts

Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, commented that the US bond market pressures influenced Trump’s decision to retract the tariffs. Significant selling activity, rather than safe-haven purchases of US treasuries, resulted in the 10-year bond yield soaring to 4.5%. Currently, this yield hovers around 4.46%, with the dollar index dropping to 100. Given the prevailing uncertainty, a prolonged market rally appears improbable. However, India’s robust economic indicators offer some hope, placing it among the nations least impacted by ongoing trade disputes. Investors are advised to prioritize safety, focusing on well-valued large-cap stocks.

Technical Insights on Nifty 50

According to Rajesh Palviya, Senior Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at Axis Securities, the Nifty 50 index continues to exhibit lower tops and bottoms, signaling a short-to-medium-term downtrend. The index remains below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day SMAs, highlighting bearish sentiments. Anticipated resistance levels are between 23,000 and 23,600, while crucial support is around 22,200. A breach of this support may lead to a further decline towards the 21,700-21,300 range. The weekly Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is currently positive, suggesting potential buying opportunities at lower levels.

Stock Recommendations

• Coromandel International Ltd (CMP: ₹2,130)

  • The stock is in a strong uptrend, forming higher tops and bottoms across all time frames.
  • A "rounding bottom" breakout at ₹1,980 indicates bullish potential.
  • Positioned well above its 20, 50, and 100-day SMAs, signaling increasing momentum.
  • Expected price range: ₹2,230-₹2,513, with support at ₹2,020-₹1,960.
• Tata Consumer Products Ltd (CMP: ₹1,103)
  • Weekly charts show a trend reversal with higher tops and bottoms.
  • The stock remains above its 20, 50, and 100-day SMAs, indicating a bullish outlook.
  • Expected price range: ₹1,185-₹1,225, with support at ₹1,050-₹1,013.

Conclusion

As the stock market navigates through these turbulent times, investors should remain vigilant and consider opportunities in strong, well-valued stocks. With India’s favorable economic landscape, there are still avenues for growth, despite the challenges posed by global trade dynamics.