The Indian IT services sector is navigating turbulent waters as concerns about a potential recession in the United States loom large. According to analysts from BNP Paribas, the Nifty IT index has recorded a significant decline of over 20% year-to-date, reflecting the apprehensions of investors. As Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) prepares to kick off the earnings season, analysts are closely watching how trends in U.S. economic performance might affect revenue growth in Indian IT.

Economic Trends Impacting Indian IT

Historically, a slowdown in U.S. real GDP growth has had repercussions for Indian IT services. BNP Paribas projects that the revenue growth for the domestic IT sector may stagnate in the fiscal year 2026. Notably, since 1992, the industry has consistently outpaced U.S. GDP growth and has never recorded a year-over-year revenue decline.

• Key Insights:
  • Anticipated revenue growth for FY 2026 is likely to be flat.
  • The Indian IT sector has maintained a growth trajectory above U.S. GDP since 1992.

Opportunities Amidst Challenges

Despite the forecasted slowdown, BNP Paribas highlights opportunities within the sector. They note that the dividend yield for Indian IT stocks is at its highest level in a decade, making certain stocks particularly appealing to investors.

• Top Stock Picks:
  • TCS and Infosys: These companies are currently trading close to their five-year dividend yield peaks and are viewed as strong investment options.
  • Tech Mahindra and Wipro: These firms are flagged for potential downside risks.

Adjusted Earnings Estimates

In light of the current economic climate, BNP Paribas has revised its earnings estimates for the fiscal year 2026-27, reducing them by 4-11% and adjusting target prices downward by 4-18%. This adjustment reflects a cautious approach to the weak demand environment expected in the near term, coupled with a gradual recovery anticipated in FY 2027.

• Factors Influencing Stock Picks:
  • Exposure to severely impacted sectors
  • Earnings risks and valuation considerations
  • Support from attractive dividend yields

Cautious Outlook for the Sector

BNP Paribas maintains a cautious stance regarding the Indian IT services sector in the near future, largely due to the anticipated U.S. economic slowdown. However, the robust dividend yields from leading companies serve as a cushion against sharp declines in stock prices.

The brokerage also identifies potential upside risks, particularly for growth-oriented firms such as Persistent Systems and Infosys. A change in tariff policies could significantly impact their estimates, while prolonged tariff effects pose substantial risks.

In summary, while the Indian IT sector faces immediate challenges, the potential for growth and attractive dividend yields create investment opportunities worth considering.