The State Bank of India (SBI), the leading public sector bank in India, is gearing up to unveil its fourth-quarter earnings tomorrow, May 3, 2025. In anticipation of this announcement, SBI’s share price experienced a notable uptick, climbing 1.87% to ₹802.95 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). Investors are keenly awaiting the bank’s performance metrics as the board convenes to discuss the fiscal results for both the fourth quarter and the entire financial year.

Anticipated Earnings and Strategic Moves

SBI’s board will not only evaluate its quarterly earnings but will also deliberate on plans to bolster equity during FY26. This could involve various avenues such as a Follow-on Public Offer (FPO), Rights Issue, or Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP), depending on regulatory approvals from the Government of India and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Forecast for Q4 Results

Analysts predict a challenging quarter for SBI, with net profits expected to drop by 10%-15% year-over-year. According to Axis Securities, the bank’s net profit for the March 2025 quarter could be around ₹18,106 crore, down from ₹20,698 crore in the previous year.

• Net Interest Income (NII) is projected to rise by 2.5% to ₹42,696 crore compared to ₹41,655 crore last year.
• Despite this increase, the Net Interest Margin (NIM) is anticipated to dip slightly.
• The Pre-Provisioning Operating Profit (PPOP) is also expected to decline by 6.5%, landing at ₹26,886 crore.

Provisions and Asset Quality

SBI’s provisions for the fourth quarter are estimated at ₹2,619 crore, marking an increase of 187.4% from the previous quarter and 62.7% year-over-year. Despite these rising costs, analysts foresee a stabilization in credit costs and a modest improvement in asset quality.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services projects a decrease in the Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio to 1.96%, down from 2.07% in the previous quarter. The Net NPA ratio is also expected to decline to 0.50% from 0.53%.

Strong Growth Indicators

Both advances and deposits for SBI are on a robust growth trajectory, surpassing systemic trends. Forecasts suggest:

• Deposits growth of 9.2%
• Loan growth pegged at 13.1%

Investment Outlook for SBI Shares

In the past month, SBI’s share price has risen by 3%, although it has shown minimal change year-to-date. Over the last year, shares have seen a slight decrease of more than 3%. However, a long-term perspective reveals strong performance, with returns of 40% over two years and an impressive 320% over five years.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintains a ‘Buy’ rating for SBI shares, setting a target price of ₹925. Technical analysts have noted that SBI recently broke out of a bullish 59-day cup and handle pattern, suggesting potential for further gains.

Market Trends and Predictions

According to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, the current stock price adjustment is a healthy retest of the breakout zone around ₹780. He indicates that as long as the price remains above this threshold, there’s potential for an upward movement towards ₹835, with an additional target of ₹875 in the upcoming sessions.

As of 3:20 PM, SBI shares were trading 1.62% higher at ₹800.95 on the BSE, reflecting investor optimism ahead of the pivotal earnings report.

For further insights on the banking sector and related financial services, explore more articles on our website!