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Nikkei Soars on Optimism Over US-China Trade Deal: Japan’s Market Surge Explained

Japan’s Nikkei Index Sees Gains Amid Positive Trade Talks

On Monday, the Nikkei share average in Japan experienced a modest uptick, fueled by encouraging news from recent U.S.-China trade discussions. As of 02:02 GMT, the Nikkei climbed by 0.2%, reaching 37,573.27, while the broader Topix index edged up 0.02% to 2,734.09. This rise showcases the market’s optimism, although the gains seem to have been tempered by profit-taking among investors.

Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics

Market analyst Shuutarou Yasuda from Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory noted that investor enthusiasm was sparked by signs of progress in the trade negotiations between the two economic giants. "While there was a wave of buying based on optimism, many chose to sell off during the rally, which limited overall gains," Yasuda explained. Despite a sharp rise in the indices, the momentum appears largely driven by speculative expectations surrounding the trade talks.

  • The Nikkei index has surged approximately 20% since hitting a 1.5-year low on April 7 due to the announcement of significant U.S. tariffs.
  • On Friday, the index traded over 7% above its 25-day moving average, indicating potential market overheating, according to Maki Sawada, a senior strategist at Nomura Securities.

Positive Developments in Trade Talks

On a more optimistic note, U.S. and Chinese officials concluded their discussions on a high note, with U.S. representatives highlighting a potential deal aimed at reducing the trade deficit. Chinese delegates mentioned that both sides reached an "important consensus" and agreed to establish a new economic dialogue forum, hinting at future collaborations.

Sector Performances and Notable Stocks

In terms of individual stocks, Advantest, a manufacturer of chip-testing equipment, emerged as a significant contributor to the Nikkei’s rise, soaring by 4.3%. Meanwhile, Tokyu Fudosan, a property developer, experienced a robust increase of 5.18% following its forecast of a record annual net profit of 85 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

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Conversely, the pharmaceutical sector faced challenges amid concerns regarding declining drug prices. Following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of an impending executive order targeting reductions in prescription drug prices, shares of Daiichi Sankyo plummeted by 5.44%. Overall, the pharmaceutical sector fell by 4.3%, making it the weakest performer among the 33 industry sub-indexes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

  • Nippon Steel also reported a decline, with its shares dropping 4.94% after forecasting a 43% decrease in net profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

As the Japanese market reacts to these developments, investor sentiment remains pivotal. With trade negotiations promising a glimmer of hope, the coming days will be crucial for determining the sustainability of this market rally.

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