The Indian stock market has shown resilience, with the Nifty index surging 2.07% over the past two weeks, despite escalating tensions stemming from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Kashmir. The diplomatic rift and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty have created a backdrop of uncertainty, yet investors seem to be absorbing the news with a level of calm.

Weekly Performance Overview

During the last week alone, the Nifty climbed 1.28%, while the Bank Nifty experienced a smaller uptick of 0.83%. In stark contrast, the smallcap and microcap sectors faced challenges, dropping 0.64% and 2.4%, respectively. This disparity highlights the growing apprehension among smaller investors, who may be feeling the pressure as geopolitical tensions rise.

• Nifty: +1.28%
• Bank Nifty: +0.83%
• Smallcaps: -0.64%
• Microcaps: -2.4%

Historical Market Resilience

Historically, stock markets have a tendency to climb walls of worry. Initial reactions to conflicts might be steep declines, but over time, markets often stabilize and recover. This pattern was clearly visible during significant conflicts like the Gulf War, Afghanistan invasion, and the Kargil War. For example, following the downing of a MiG-21 during the Kargil conflict in 1999, the Nifty initially dipped by approximately 4% but ultimately rebounded by more than 30% by the end of the war.

Technical Analysis Insights

From a technical standpoint, examining the daily candlestick chart reveals crucial insights. Trendline 51—drawn from the highs of 23,807 on February 5 and 23,869 on April 25—was breached on April 21, forming a gap between 23,872 and 23,903. This gap was effectively filled by April 25.

• Current Nifty Closing: 24,346 (Highest in 2025)
• Support Level: 23,920 (Trendline support rising daily)
• Next Resistance Levels:
  • 24,589 (Friday’s high)
  • 24,708
  • 25,212
  • Target: 25,650 (based on inverted head and shoulders pattern)

Global Market Performance

In the U.S., markets also enjoyed a robust performance last Friday, with the S&P 500 extending its winning streak to nine days, the longest in two decades. This uptick comes on the back of encouraging April non-farm payroll data and a thaw in U.S.-China trade relations.

As tensions with Pakistan mount, the Indian government remains alert to external threats while the global sentiment trends positively in India’s favor. This combination fosters optimism that Pakistan may be effectively managed in this ongoing situation.

Investor Takeaway

For investors, the current climate presents an opportunity to remain confidently engaged in the market. While challenges exist, the historical trends and recent performance suggest potential for growth despite geopolitical uncertainties.

In summary, while the volatility stemming from international relations may induce concern, the stock market’s historical resilience offers a silver lining for those willing to navigate through these turbulent times.

This fresh perspective aims to provide an engaging overview of recent market trends while ensuring a unique presentation of facts.