As the stock market gears up for a holiday-shortened week, analysts highlight that geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, along with quarterly earnings and macroeconomic data, will significantly influence trading activity. With foreign investors continuing their buying spree in the Indian market, the performance of global markets will also play a crucial role in guiding market movements.
Market Outlook Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Equity markets will observe a pause on Thursday in observance of Maharashtra Day. Investors are keenly watching for updates on tariffs, which may affect trading dynamics. Recently, the stock markets experienced some profit-taking due to escalating tensions following a tragic terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that claimed the lives of 26 individuals.
- Key Focus Areas for Investors:
- Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan
- Quarterly earnings reports from major corporations
- Macroeconomic indicators like the Index of Industrial Production and HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that the upcoming week not only marks a new month but also presents an opportunity to delve into monthly auto sales data. He emphasized the importance of geopolitical events and corporate earnings, with major firms including BPCL, IOC, Bajaj Finance, TVS Motor, and UltraTech Cement set to report their quarterly results.
Recent Market Performance
Last week, the BSE benchmark index surged by 659.33 points or 0.83%, while the NSE Nifty rose by 187.7 points or 0.78%, despite some profit-taking in the last two trading sessions. However, on Friday, the Sensex saw a decline, dropping 588.90 points or 0.74%, closing at 79,212.53. The NSE Nifty followed suit, falling 207.35 points or 0.86% to settle at 24,039.35.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expressed concerns that ongoing geopolitical issues might introduce volatility into the Indian market over the coming days. He also highlighted that sector-specific movements will continue as Q4 earnings announcements roll in, with large-cap companies like UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, and Ambuja Cements expected to report this week.
Corporate Earnings Update
In recent earnings news, Reliance Industries Ltd reported a 2.4% increase in net profit for the March quarter, benefiting from improved margins in its retail and telecom sectors, despite facing challenges in its oil and petrochemicals divisions. The consolidated net profit for the fourth quarter of FY25 stood at ₹19,407 crore, an increase from ₹18,951 crore in the same quarter last year.
Upcoming Economic Indicators
Looking ahead, the period from April 28 to May 2, 2025, is poised to deliver critical economic releases that could sway global market dynamics and investor perspectives. In India, particular attention will be directed toward the Industrial Production (YoY) data for March, which is scheduled for release on April 28. This data will provide valuable insights into the health of the country’s manufacturing and industrial sectors, as noted by Bajaj Broking Research.
VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, pointed out a noticeable shift in the Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) strategy in India. Over the past eight days, FIIs have remained consistent buyers in the Indian market, a trend that emerges amidst rising geopolitical tensions following the Pahalgam terror incident.
As the market navigates these complex dynamics, investors are encouraged to stay informed and agile in their strategies.
