March 17 Stock Market Outlook: Nifty 50 and Sensex Predictions for Indian Traders

On Monday, the Indian stock market is set to open on a positive note, buoyed by a surge in global market indices. The GIFT Nifty, a key indicator, is pointing towards a promising start for the Nifty 50, trading around 22,590, which reflects a premium of approximately 146 points compared to the previous close of Nifty futures. It’s worth noting that the domestic equity and commodity markets were closed on Friday in observance of Holi 2025.

Recent Market Performance

In the last trading session on Thursday, both benchmark indices experienced a downturn. The Sensex saw a decline of 200.85 points, or 0.27%, closing at 73,828.91, while the Nifty 50 dropped by 73.30 points, settling at 22,397.20. This downward trend illustrates a market grappling with volatility, as traders await a decisive breakout.

Sensex Outlook

The recent performance of the Sensex indicates that it has been finding consistent support around the 73,300 mark. According to Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, there is notable profit-taking occurring between the 74,700 and 74,900 levels. He suggests that if the index breaks above 74,900, it could reach between 75,500 to 75,800. Conversely, if it dips below 73,300, we might see accelerated selling, potentially dragging it down to the 72,700 – 72,400 range.

Nifty 50 Insights

The Nifty 50 has shown signs of weakness, closing lower on March 13. Nagaraj Shetti, a Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, notes the formation of a bearish candle on the daily chart, indicating a range-bound market with a negative bias. He emphasizes that a move above 22,600 could reignite buying interest, pushing towards 23,000. However, if it falls below 22,300, the next significant support level could be around 22,000.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

Support Levels:
- Nifty 50: 22,300, 22,250
- Sensex: 73,300, 72,700
Resistance Levels:
- Nifty 50: 22,600, 22,700
- Sensex: 74,900, 75,500

Om Mehra, a Technical Analyst at SAMCO Securities, also highlighted the prevailing bearish sentiment in the Nifty 50. He pointed out that the index remains confined within a broad range, with a 0.65% decline weekly. The India VIX, currently at 13.28, suggests a potential short-term pullback could be on the horizon.

Bank Nifty Forecast

The Bank Nifty saw a marginal increase of 3.75 points, closing at 48,060.40 on Thursday, forming a doji candle that signals indecision in the market. Om Mehra noted that while there was an attempt to surpass the 9 EMA at 48,350, it failed to maintain that level, indicating that resistance remains. Immediate support is seen at 47,800 and 47,600, critical for maintaining bullish sentiment.

Amol Athawale further elaborated that a double bottom support is positioned at 47,700 for the Bank Nifty. If it remains above this level, a pullback could be expected, targeting levels of 48,600 or 48,800. However, a dip below 47,700 might shift sentiment, increasing the chances of a decline towards 47,300 – 47,000.

Conclusion

As traders gear up for Monday’s session, the market sentiment appears cautiously optimistic, with key levels being closely monitored. Keeping an eye on the global markets and domestic indicators will be crucial for navigating the upcoming trading days. With ongoing fluctuations, both seasoned investors and newcomers should stay informed about market trends and potential breakout opportunities.