Jio Set to Reap Rewards from July '24 Tariff Hike in Q4: What You Need to Know

Reliance Jio, the telecom division of Reliance Industries Limited, is poised to reap the rewards of the anticipated tariff increases set for July 2024. Unlike its competitors, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, Jio appears well-positioned for growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. Analysts have shared insights on the projected advancements for the telecom sector in Q4 FY25, highlighting Jio’s subscriber growth and revenue expectations.

Subscriber Growth Projections

Analysts predict that Reliance Jio will add approximately four million new subscribers, significantly boosting its overall customer base. However, this positive trend may be slightly dampened by the fact that the quarter will have two fewer operational days, which could influence overall metrics.

End of March 2025 Subscriber Base: Expected to reach 488 million, up from 482 million in the previous quarter.
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU): Anticipated to rise to Rs 204.76, compared to Rs 203 in the third quarter of FY25.

ARPU Growth Insights

The analysts from IIFL noted that Jio’s strategy of offering long-duration plans allows for a projected 0.5% quarter-on-quarter growth in ARPU, even despite the reduced operational days. Meanwhile, analysts from ICICI Securities are even more optimistic, forecasting an ARPU increase of up to 1.2% due to Jio’s favorable mix of long-validity plans and the staggered impact of recent tariff hikes.

Revenue and EBITDA Expectations

Jio’s revenue for the fourth quarter is projected to experience a 1.8-2% sequential growth, driven by the residual effects of the tariff increase and a surge in fixed broadband services, particularly through its fixed wireless access (FWA) solutions.

FTTH Subscriber Growth: Analysts from JM Financial anticipate that the fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) segment will continue to thrive, potentially adding 2 million subscribers.

In terms of profitability, Jio’s EBITDA is expected to rise between 2% to 3% compared to the previous quarter. Analysts from ICICI Securities mentioned that while the EBITDA margin should remain stable, cost pressures due to rising fiber rental prices might impact profitability.

Anticipated Net Profit Figures

Looking ahead, Jio’s net profit for this quarter is estimated to climb to around Rs 6700 crore, a slight increase from Rs 6477 crore reported in Q3. This growth trajectory demonstrates Jio’s resilience and effective strategy in navigating the competitive telecom landscape.

With these strong projections and strategic positioning, Reliance Jio continues to solidify its status as a leader in the Indian telecom market, making it an exciting player to watch as the fiscal year progresses.