Investors are closely watching the fluctuations in Reliance Industries’ share price, which dipped nearly 1% in early trading on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) this Thursday, April 24. The stock began the day at ₹1,298.65, slightly lower than its previous close of ₹1,299.90, and reached an intraday low of ₹1,290.50. By 11:05 AM, Reliance shares were trading at ₹1,294.95, reflecting a 0.38% decline. Meanwhile, the benchmark index, Sensex, was down by 0.23% at 79,934.

Year-Long Decline in Reliance Stock

Over the past year, shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) have faced significant pressure, resulting in an 11% decline. The stock peaked at ₹1,608.95 on July 8 last year but recently fell to a 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 on April 7.

Anticipation of Q4 Results

As the company prepares to announce its Q4 results, experts predict a mixed bag. While the telecom and retail sectors are expected to show modest growth, the oil and gas division may struggle due to rising crude oil prices.

“Reliance’s earnings are likely to remain stable, yet the operating profit could face challenges from higher crude costs. The oil and gas sector may see flat performance, whereas Jio and retail segments might show some growth,” shared Avinash Gorakshakar, head of research at Profitmart Securities. He noted that the upcoming quarter’s outlook will be essential, especially with recent declines in crude prices.

Key Financial Metrics

According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, RIL is projected to report a consolidated EBITDA of ₹43,500 crore, remaining flat year-on-year. On the standalone front, EBITDA might witness a substantial 24% YoY drop to ₹15,210 crore.

• Net sales might slightly increase by 1.8% YoY.
• EBITDA margin is expected to sit at 18.1%, slightly above the previous year’s 18%.
• Adjusted PAT could decline by 5.1% YoY.

Investors will be keen to glean insights regarding the ₹75,000 crore announcements in the new energy sector, growth in retail store locations, and potential pricing changes in telecom services.

Should You Invest in RIL Ahead of Q4?

Gorakshakar advises investors to hold off on making new investments in RIL until the company releases its Q4 results and management insights, citing market uncertainties. He emphasized that geopolitical factors, including the ongoing trade tensions and recent incidents, could influence market stability.

Technical Analysis Insights

From a technical viewpoint, Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, notes that Reliance has maintained a solid support zone between ₹1,175 and ₹1,200. Currently trading around ₹1,290, the stock faces immediate resistance at the R3 level of the yearly Camarilla pivots.

• Investors are encouraged to gradually accumulate shares within the ₹1,250–₹1,300 range, aiming for a target of ₹1,450 and setting a stop-loss below ₹1,175.
• For traders, a daily close above ₹1,325 may signal a breakout, offering favorable conditions for both short-term traders and medium-term investors.

Mandar Bhojane, an equity research analyst at Choice Broking, points out that Reliance is facing significant resistance around the ₹1,300–₹1,320 mark. This zone, coinciding with the 200 EMA, has historically posed challenges for the stock, resulting in multiple rejections.

However, he also notes strong support around ₹1,270–₹1,260, indicating a consolidation phase. “As long as the stock holds above ₹1,260, the outlook remains neutral to slightly bullish. A sustained move past ₹1,300 could lead to a test of the ₹1,320–₹1,330 zone,” Bhojane explained.

Conclusion

In summary, Reliance Industries is navigating a complex market landscape with mixed expectations for its upcoming Q4 results. Investors are advised to remain vigilant and consider both technical and fundamental analyses before making investment decisions. As the company prepares to unveil its latest financial performance, the potential for market shifts remains high.

For more insights on market trends and investment strategies, stay tuned for updates.