On Wednesday, the share price of Coal India experienced a dip as investors awaited the company’s fourth-quarter financial results, scheduled for release today. The stock fell by 1.96%, reaching ₹370.90 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). A meeting of the board is set for today, May 7, 2025, to evaluate and finalize the financial performance for the quarter ending March 2025 and the entire fiscal year.
Anticipated Q4 Results for Coal India
As the world’s leading coal producer, Coal India is under scrutiny for its upcoming earnings report, which analysts predict will reveal mixed outcomes. Despite an expected increase in production volumes, profitability is anticipated to lag.
- Subdued Net Profit: Analysts forecast a decline in net profit both year-on-year (YoY) and sequentially.
- Revenue Growth: A slight revenue growth of 2.4% YoY is anticipated, reaching ₹38,290 crore.
- Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA): Projected to increase by 12.9% YoY to approximately ₹11,110 crore.
According to Seema Srivastava, a Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, the expected decline in profitability is largely attributed to reduced realizations despite increased production. “The decline in e-auction premiums, coupled with higher employee costs, poses a significant challenge to overall earnings," she remarked.
Key Factors Influencing Coal India’s Performance
The performance indicators for Coal India’s Q4 results reflect mixed signals:
- Flat Coal Production: Year-on-year coal production and offtake show minimal changes, indicating a stagnation in growth.
- E-Auction Premiums: The anticipated sharp decrease in e-auction premiums, linked to lower global thermal coal prices, could further pressure profitability.
- Market Dynamics: Analysts stress the importance of e-auction realizations as they play a crucial role in total sales and profitability.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL) estimates that Coal India’s net profit will remain flat at ₹8,690 crore for Q4FY25, with revenue growth expected to be modest, reflecting the prevailing market conditions.
Current Share Price Trends
The trading pattern for Coal India shares indicates a range between ₹421 and ₹356. Recent movements have shown that the stock has struggled to break through the upper limits of this range.
- Technical Indicators: The formation of a breakdown candle below the 10- and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) suggests increasing bearish momentum.
- Price Forecast: According to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, unless there is a quick reversal, the stock could test the lower boundary of ₹356.
At around 10:10 AM, Coal India shares were down by 0.42%, trading at ₹376.75 on the BSE. Investors are keenly watching today’s results and subsequent management guidance, which will be critical for assessing future performance.
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