The Indian stock market is poised for an optimistic opening on Monday, buoyed by favorable signals from global markets. After a week of gains in the US, where the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both marked their ninth consecutive days of rising, local investors are keenly anticipating upcoming market catalysts. With several key events on the horizon, including quarterly earnings for Q4 2025, US Federal Reserve decisions, and geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, market dynamics could shift significantly.
Positive Global Influence on Indian Markets
Over the weekend, while many Asian markets remained quiet due to public holidays, the US markets showed notable strength. The Indian indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, ended Friday’s trading session on a high note, although some profit-taking occurred as investors consolidated gains. The Sensex rose by 259.75 points (0.32%) to 80,501.99, and Nifty 50 edged up 12.50 points (0.05%) to 24,346.70.
Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President of Research at Religare Broking Ltd, emphasized that the Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase, facing resistance around the 24,500 mark. He advised investors to adopt a "buy on dips" strategy, focusing on stocks with strong relative strength to navigate the current market conditions effectively.
Key Market Indicators to Watch
As investors gear up for the week, several critical factors are set to steer market movements:
- Upcoming Q4 Results: Earnings reports from major companies could influence stock prices.
- Federal Reserve Policy Decisions: Any changes in monetary policy may impact investor sentiment.
- Geopolitical Tensions: Developments in India-Pakistan relations could cause market fluctuations.
- Foreign Capital Flow: Trends in foreign investment will be closely monitored.
- Global Trade Announcements: Trade deal updates can sway market confidence.
Insights into Asian Markets
Most Asian markets were closed for holidays, but Australian shares opened lower following the re-election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The S&P/ASX 200 index dipped by 0.29%, while the Australian dollar slightly weakened against the US dollar, trading at 0.6439.
US Market Performance Over the Weekend
On the US front, stock indices wrapped up last week strongly. The Dow Jones surged by 564.47 points (1.39%) to 41,317.43, and the S&P 500 climbed 82.54 points (1.47%) to 5,686.68. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also saw a rise, closing up 266.99 points (1.51%) at 17,977.73. Notably, the S&P 500 gained 2.9% over the week, fueled by positive economic data and easing trade tensions.
US-China Trade Relations and Economic Indicators
President Donald Trump hinted at the possibility of reducing tariffs on China, acknowledging the strain high tariffs have placed on trade relations. Meanwhile, the US job market showed signs of slowing growth, with 177,000 nonfarm jobs added last month, slightly below expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%.
Crude Oil Prices and Foreign Investments
Crude oil prices faced a dip of over 3% after OPEC’s decision to enhance output, leading to increased global supplies. Brent crude fell to $59.37 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $56.34. On a positive note, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) injected ₹4,223 crore into the Indian stock market in April, marking a return to net buying after three months of outflows, bolstered by favorable global conditions.
Forex Reserves on the Rise
India’s foreign exchange reserves saw an increase of $1.983 billion, reaching $688.129 billion for the week ending April 25, signaling a robust economic standing as reserves extend their growth for the eighth consecutive week.
Overall, as the Indian stock market prepares for the upcoming week, investors should remain vigilant and informed about global cues and local economic indicators to make strategic decisions.
