The Indian stock market is bracing for a potentially sluggish opening, with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 facing pressure from ongoing geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Adding to the caution, global market indicators are showing mixed signals. The Gift Nifty suggests a downturn, trading around the 24,412 mark, reflecting a nearly 49-point deficit from the previous close of Nifty futures.
Market Overview and Recent Performance
Despite the rising geopolitical tensions, the domestic equity market saw a positive end on Tuesday. The Nifty 50 closed above the 24,400 threshold. Specifically, the Sensex increased by 105.71 points (0.13%), finishing at 80,746.78, while the Nifty 50 climbed 34.80 points (0.14%) to settle at 24,414.40.
Sensex Forecast
As of Wednesday, the Sensex exhibited a slight increase of 0.13%, closing at 80,746.78, amidst a volatile trading environment. Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, shared insights on market dynamics:
“The current market sentiment appears non-directional, as traders await a breakout. The immediate resistance level stands at 81,000; breaching this could push the index toward 81,300 to 81,500. Conversely, if it dips below 80,500, we might see intensified selling, potentially driving the index down to 80,200.”
Chouhan warns of additional declines, which could see the Sensex hover around 80,000 to 79,800.
Nifty 50 Outlook
The Nifty 50 demonstrated a swift recovery after a shaky start, eventually trading within a positive range on May 7. Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, remarked:
“A bullish candle formed on the daily chart indicates emerging buying interest. The Nifty has been fluctuating in a broader range, displaying higher lows over the past 9-10 sessions. A slide below 24,200 could trigger a short-term correction, but a decisive move above 24,600 could reignite buying momentum.”
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, added that the Nifty 50 showed resilience, defending its prior swing low of 24,200. He explained:
“The index formed a bullish candle, with the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stable at 65. A breakout above 24,530 could lead to movements toward 24,650 to 24,750.”
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Immediate Support: 24,300
- Stronger Support: 24,200
- Resistance Levels: 24,560, 24,650
Hrishikesh Yedve from Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 is grappling with resistance at 24,590. He emphasized:
“A sustained move above this level could trigger a rally towards 24,800 to 24,850. Conversely, support lies near the 200-Day Simple Moving Average, around 24,050.”
Bank Nifty Analysis
The Bank Nifty index climbed by 339.50 points (0.63%) to close at 54,610.90, reflecting a bullish trend. Om Mehra pointed out:
“The index regained above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 54,500, indicating the primary bullish trend remains intact. Strong support is at 53,800, while 54,200 is a crucial intraday level.”
Bajaj Broking Research observed that the Bank Nifty has retraced just 38.2% of the recent rally, signifying strength. They anticipate continued consolidation within the 53,500 – 56,000 range, with key support situated at 54,000 to 53,500.
Conclusion
As traders prepare for today’s market session, attention will be focused on geopolitical developments and their potential impact on stock performance. Investors may consider strategic approaches, including watchful observation of resistance and support levels, to navigate the upcoming fluctuations effectively.
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