India is set to become a powerhouse in global trade, predicted to contribute 6% to worldwide trade growth over the next five years, as detailed in a collaborative report by the New York University Stern School of Business and DHL, titled “DHL Trade Atlas 2025.” With this growth trajectory, India is positioned to follow closely behind China, which is expected to account for 12%, and the United States at 10%.
India’s Rising Trade Significance
The report reveals that India not only ranks third in absolute trade growth but also shows a remarkable pace in its trade expansion. This rapid growth places India significantly ahead of other major economies.
- China: 12% contribution
- United States: 10% contribution
- India: 6% contribution
India’s impressive performance is highlighted by its rise within the scale dimension, where it maintains its third-place status. Additionally, it is projected to ascend to 17th place in speed metrics—up from 32nd—indicating a robust enhancement in trade efficiencies.
Trade Performance Insights
In 2024, India ranked as the 13th largest player in international trade, showcasing a 5.2% annual compound growth rate since 2019. Recent statistics from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicate that India’s exports in February 2025 reached $71.95 billion, marking a 3.16% increase from $69.74 billion the previous year. Conversely, imports saw a decline of 11.33%, dropping to $67.52 billion from $76.15 billion in February 2024.
Key Import and Export Partners
India’s major trading partners include:
- Exports: United States, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Netherlands, United Kingdom, and China.
- Imports: China, Russia, UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
The country imports essential goods such as crude petroleum, gold, electronic components, and various industrial products. In contrast, India’s exports consist of finished petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and precious stones.
Future Trade Projections
According to the DHL Trade Atlas, India’s trade volume is anticipated to surge by an estimated $484.0 billion between 2024 and 2029, solidifying its role as a crucial link between Eastern and Western markets.
R. S. Subramanian, Senior Vice President of DHL Express South Asia, commented on the findings: "The Trade Atlas underscores India’s swift ascent in global trade, positioning it as a vital hub. While we expect to see growth in trade volumes and an expanded share in global trade, we remain cautiously optimistic amidst ongoing global economic fluctuations."
India’s trajectory in international trade not only reflects its potential for economic growth but also emphasizes its strategic importance in the global marketplace. As the country continues to navigate the complexities of trade dynamics, its evolving role will be pivotal in shaping future economic trends.
