The Indian government’s fiscal health is showing concerning trends, as new figures reveal that the fiscal deficit has already reached 85.8% of its annual target by the end of February 2025. Released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), this data highlights a significant gap between the nation’s revenue and its expenditures, raising questions about financial management as we move further into the fiscal year.

Fiscal Deficit: A Growing Concern

In concrete terms, the fiscal deficit for the period spanning April to February 2024-25 stands at an alarming ₹13,46,852 crore. This figure represents 86.5% of the revised estimates from the previous fiscal year, indicating a slight worsening compared to last year’s performance.

• Fiscal Deficit: ₹13,46,852 crore
• Percentage of Revised Estimates for 2023-24: 86.5%

Revenue and Expenditure Breakdown

The CGA report indicates that the central government’s net tax revenue has reached ₹20 lakh crore, which accounts for 78.8% of the revised estimates for 2024-25. This marks a decrease from 79.6% during the same period last year.

• Tax Revenue: ₹20 lakh crore
• Percentage of Revised Estimates: 78.8%

On the expenditure side, total spending has hit ₹38.93 lakh crore, equating to 82.5% of the revised estimates. Comparatively, this figure was 83.4% in the prior year, suggesting a slight improvement in controlling expenditure.

Future Projections and Budget Insights

The Union Budget has projected the fiscal deficit for 2024-25 at 4.8% of GDP, a marginal reduction from an earlier estimate of 4.9%. For the fiscal year ending in March 2025, the absolute fiscal deficit is anticipated to be around ₹15.69 lakh crore.

• Projected Fiscal Deficit as % of GDP: 4.8%
• Absolute Deficit for FY Ending March 2025: ₹15.69 lakh crore

Key Expenditures and Transfers

Out of the total revenue expenditure, a significant portion is allocated to interest payments, amounting to ₹9.52 lakh crore, alongside ₹3.63 lakh crore designated for major subsidies during the current financial year.

Additionally, it’s noteworthy that the government has transferred ₹11.80 lakh crore to state governments as their share of tax devolution up to February 2025, which is an increase of ₹1.47 lakh crore compared to the previous year.

In summary, while there are signs of both revenue generation and expenditure control, the overall fiscal landscape remains precarious. Stakeholders will need to monitor these developments closely as the government navigates its financial obligations in the upcoming months.