Vietnam, the world’s leading producer of robusta coffee, is expected to see its harvest yield around 26.5 million bags for the 2024-25 season. According to Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), this projection marks a decrease from their previous estimate made in December and is slightly lower than the 27 million bags harvested in 2023-24.
Global Coffee Supply Challenges
The tightening of global coffee supplies can be largely attributed to adverse harvesting conditions in other major coffee-producing nations, particularly Brazil. This shortage has contributed to a remarkable surge in robusta coffee futures, which have skyrocketed nearly 70% over the past year.
Impact of Weather on Vietnamese Coffee Crops
Vietnam’s coffee production has also faced its share of challenges due to drought conditions affecting the crop yield, as highlighted by Hai during an interview at the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Festival in Dak Lak province. "This year, we’re facing a coffee shortage due to a series of severe weather events impacting global growing regions," remarked Vanúsia Nogueira, the executive director of the International Coffee Organization. “Our stock levels are critically low.”
Positive Signs for Future Harvests
As the 2024-25 harvest approaches its conclusion, the development of coffee beans for the upcoming season is underway. Hai mentioned that early signs of coffee tree flowering are promising, thanks to sufficient rainfall, which could bode well for future yields.
- Current Robusta Futures: As of Wednesday, robusta coffee futures remain stable at $5,550 per ton in London.
- Arabica Coffee Trends: In contrast, arabica coffee, the more premium variety often sought for specialty drinks, saw a decline of up to 2.6% in New York.
In summary, while Vietnam grapples with weather-related challenges and declining harvest forecasts, there remains cautious optimism regarding coffee flowering prospects. As global coffee markets adjust, the dynamics of robusta and arabica coffee continue to evolve, making it a critical time for both producers and consumers alike.
