International tourist arrivals in Thailand are anticipated to plummet by 10-15% or even more in the upcoming fortnight, following a substantial 7.7 magnitude earthquake that rattled Bangkok and other popular tourist destinations. This unsettling event has caused potential travelers to reconsider their plans, according to the Thai Hotels Association. In a preliminary survey, it was found that approximately 10% of international tourists checked out early after the quake, although some returned when they had no alternative accommodations.

Immediate Impact on Tourism

The president of the Thai Hotels Association, Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, expressed concerns over the immediate effects of the earthquake on the tourism sector. “We expect a short-term impact due to heightened safety fears,” he conveyed via phone on Saturday. The tourism industry is a cornerstone of the Thai economy, employing one in five workers and contributing about 13% to the country’s GDP.

• Key statistics:
  • 10% of tourists checked out early.
  • Tourism employs 20% of the workforce.
  • Contributes 13% to GDP.

Government Reassurances

In response to these developments, Thai authorities are striving to reassure international visitors. Sorawong Thienthong, the Minister of Tourism and Sports, stated that the country remains safe for tourists and announced a comprehensive safety audit for hotels and major attractions. Although the earthquake triggered mass evacuations and halted public transport for a day, Bangkok largely escaped severe damage, unlike Myanmar, which faced catastrophic destruction. The most notable incident in Bangkok was the collapse of a high-rise building under construction, tragically resulting in the deaths of 10 workers.

Ongoing Concerns

Despite efforts to reassure travelers, there has been a noticeable decline in tourist arrivals in recent months, primarily due to safety concerns linked to human trafficking incidents involving Thailand and Myanmar. This has particularly affected visitors from China, the largest source of tourists to Thailand. Hotel bookings for the upcoming Songkran festival are notably lower compared to previous years, and fears following the earthquake could further diminish foreign visitor confidence.

• Key challenges:
  • Declining tourist arrivals since early February.
  • Low hotel bookings for upcoming festivals.
  • Ongoing concerns about safety.

Future Projections

As Thailand enters a seasonal low with decreasing arrivals from European tourists and sluggish recovery from Chinese visitors, Bank of America economists predict that the forecast of 38.1 million tourist arrivals in 2023 may be overly optimistic. So far this year, Thailand has welcomed 8.9 million tourists, reflecting a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year.

Interestingly, group travelers appear less worried about safety, as normal flight schedules continue at key Thai airports. Adith Chairattananon, the secretary-general of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, noted, “While organized groups aren’t showing much concern, tourists without current bookings may opt to defer their travel plans.” He cautioned that the impact of these recent events could become more apparent in the next couple of weeks.

Conclusion

In summary, the recent earthquake has introduced significant uncertainty into Thailand’s tourism sector, which is critical to the nation’s economic health. With the increasing emphasis on safety and assurance from government officials, the hope remains that tourism will rebound, but the immediate future appears challenging.