On April 15, coffee prices experienced a notable surge, as investors shifted their attention back to the critically low inventories and the positive vibes in broader markets following recent adjustments in tariff policies by U.S. President Donald Trump. While concerns linger over the potential impact of a global trade war on economic growth, stock markets have shown signs of recovery this week due to Trump’s temporary tariff suspensions and modifications.
Coffee Market Insights
Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange saw an increase of 2.5%, reaching $3.6750 per pound as of 1152 GMT. This rise comes after a 2.7% decline from the previous week. Meanwhile, Robusta coffee futures climbed 2.1% to $5,347 per metric ton, rebounding from a 1.5% drop last week.
- According to consultancy Safras & Mercado, Brazilian farmers have only sold 14% of their 2025/26 coffee crop. This figure is significantly lower than the 25% long-term average for this period, largely due to uncertainties surrounding production forecasts.
- A market dealer predicts that arabica prices could recover to between $3.60 and $3.80 per pound this week, driven by supply concerns and limited stock availability.
Cocoa Trends
Conversely, the cocoa market saw a downturn, with London cocoa futures decreasing by 0.8%, settling at £5,926 per ton, following a 3% decline last week. In New York, cocoa prices fell 0.2% to $8,140 per ton, down 1% from the previous week.
- Investors are wary of a potential decline in demand for cocoa, with the first-quarter cocoa grind data—an essential indicator of demand—projected to show a substantial drop between 5% and 7%.
- On a positive note, beneficial rainfall is anticipated across regions in Ivory Coast, Cameroon, and Nigeria over the next week to ten days, and stock levels in ICE warehouses are gradually increasing.
Sugar Market Developments
In the sugar sector, raw sugar prices dipped by 0.6%, landing at 17.76 cents per pound, while white sugar fell 1.4% to $520.10 per ton.
- Market analysts at ADMISI noted, “The uncertain demand stemming from a volatile global economic outlook continues to be a pressing concern.”
- In related news, France’s farm ministry has projected this year’s sugar beet area at 391,000 hectares, down from 412,000 hectares in 2024 and 2.9% below the five-year average.
- Additionally, sugar production in Brazil’s centre-south region increased by nearly 10% compared to the same period last year, as mills shifted more cane towards sugar production instead of ethanol, according to industry group UNICA.
This blend of market fluctuations in coffee, cocoa, and sugar highlights the complexities of agricultural commodities and their interlinked dynamics in today’s economy.
