Axis Bank, recognized as the third-largest private lender in India, is set to unveil its Q4 financial results on April 24. Alongside these quarterly insights for the fiscal year 2025, the bank will also share its performance figures for the entire financial year concluding on March 31, 2025. Analysts predict a lackluster earnings report for the January to March quarter, characterized by modest margins and slow loan growth.

Earnings Expectations: A Look Ahead

In the upcoming financial disclosure, Axis Bank’s net interest income (NII) for Q4 FY25 is projected to experience a 6.2% increase, reaching approximately ₹13,900 crore, up from ₹13,089 crore in the previous year. The bank’s other income is anticipated to improve, contributing to lower cost ratios.

• NIM Projections: Despite the expected growth in NII, analysts foresee a drop in net interest margins (NIMs), likely decreasing by 14 basis points to 3.9%. According to YES Securities, this slowdown is attributed to diminishing yields on advances outpacing deposit costs, leading to sequentially lower NIMs.

Loan and Deposit Growth Trends

Forecasts indicate that Axis Bank’s total advances may rise 9.27% year-on-year, reaching ₹10.6 lakh crore in the March quarter, compared to ₹9.7 lakh crore during the same period last year. Additionally, deposits are expected to increase by 8.4%, climbing to ₹11.6 lakh crore from ₹10.7 lakh crore year-on-year.

• Key Insights from Analysts: Analysts from Elara Capital foresee a more subdued quarter-on-quarter growth in the loan book, with similar trends in deposit growth. They emphasize monitoring NIMs closely, as steady or slightly declining figures will significantly impact core Pre-Provisioning Operating Profits (PPoP).

Stability in Asset Quality

The bank’s asset quality is projected to remain stable. Motilal Oswal Financial Services estimates that the gross non-performing asset (GNPA) ratio will hold steady at around 1.5%, while the net NPA (NNPA) ratio is expected to remain unchanged at 0.4%, consistent with figures seen in the December quarter.

Important Takeaways for Investors

Key insights from Axis Bank’s management regarding deposit growth, forecasts for PPoP expansion, and credit cost expectations will be crucial for investors and analysts following the Q4 results closely.

Axis Bank Stock Performance

In recent weeks, Axis Bank’s stock has shown remarkable resilience amid the fluctuating Indian stock market. Over the past month, the bank’s shares have surged by over 13%, and they have gained more than 27% in the last three months. Year-to-date, the shares have appreciated nearly 14%, with a substantial 55% increase over the past year.

• Long-Term Growth: Over a five-year horizon, Axis Bank’s stock has delivered impressive returns, soaring by approximately 180%, reflecting strong long-term growth potential.

Currently, at 2:40 PM, shares are trading 0.62% lower at ₹1,209.55 on the BSE, but the overall outlook remains optimistic as investors await the forthcoming quarterly results.

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