On April 19, 2025, Yes Bank’s board of directors will convene to review and approve its unaudited standalone financial results for the fourth quarter of FY25. Following a stock market holiday for Good Friday, the last trading session before this event saw Yes Bank shares rise by approximately one percent, closing at ₹18.07 on the NSE. Market analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the bank’s recovery trajectory, emphasizing the need for prudent investment strategies.

Positive Performance Indicators for Yes Bank

Recent assessments indicate that Yes Bank’s operating performance is on an upward trend, positioning it as a potential recovery candidate in the banking sector. Key metrics to watch include:

• Deposits: Increased by 6.8% YoY to ₹2.84 lakh crore.
• Loan Book: Grew 12.1% YoY to ₹2.46 lakh crore.
• CASA Ratio: Improved to 34.3%, highlighting better funding efficiency.

These figures suggest that Yes Bank is enhancing its operational efficiency and liquidity management, which is a positive sign for investors.

Analyst Insights on Q4 Earnings Expectations

Kotak Securities provided insights into Yes Bank’s upcoming financial results, projecting a NIM (Net Interest Margin) of 2.3%, reflecting a 10 basis points decline quarter-over-quarter. They noted potential volatility due to income fluctuations linked to maturing security receipts and the impact of RIDF (Rural Infrastructure Development Fund) investments. Despite these challenges, analysts predict a steady trend in recoveries and upgrades, which may influence the bank’s overall earnings.

Seema Srivastava, a Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, emphasized that while Yes Bank shows promise with its improving operational metrics, investors should still exercise caution. "The bank is strategically expanding its lending sectors, including retail, SMEs, and microfinance. However, ongoing concerns regarding past asset quality necessitate a careful approach for risk-averse investors," she stated. The bank aims for 13-14% loan growth and 17-18% deposit growth in FY25, alongside plans to broaden its branch network.

Market Sentiment and Share Price Projections

Global brokerage Goldman Sachs has adopted a bearish outlook on Yes Bank, projecting a PPOP (Profit Before Provisioning and Other Operating Expenses) decline of 30% YoY and a PPOP ROA (Return on Assets) drop to 60%. They have set a target price of ₹15 for Yes Bank shares, indicating a ‘sell’ recommendation amidst stable credit costs.

In summary, while Yes Bank is making strides in improving its operational metrics, investors are advised to remain vigilant and consider waiting for more consistent performance before committing to significant investments.