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Oil Falls to Lowest in Six Months as Trade Wars Cloud Outlook

Australian Shares Surge as Banks and Miners Bounce Back from Global Market Rout

Australian shares experienced a notable increase on Tuesday, primarily driven by strong performances from banks and mining companies. Investors found solace in Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ comments, which suggested that resource-rich Australia would effectively handle the repercussions of U.S. President Donald Trump’s extensive tariffs. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose by 1.1%, reaching 7,423.40 points by 0035 GMT, bouncing back after a 4.2% decline on Monday.

Economic Outlook Amid Tariff Concerns

In a recent press conference, Chalmers acknowledged that while the impact on the Australian economy is expected to be manageable, there will still be consequences. He stated, “We anticipate that Australian GDP will be affected, and we expect price fluctuations as a result.” This outlook comes as the market attempts to recover from Monday’s downturn, which marked the lowest levels seen since the onset of the pandemic.

  • Key Points from Chalmers:
    • Manageable economic impacts anticipated.
    • Australian GDP projected to take a hit.
    • Expectation of price changes in local markets.

Mining Sector Breaks Losing Streak

After four consecutive sessions of losses, the mining sub-index surged by 1.7%, with major players such as Rio Tinto, BHP Group, and Fortescue Metals seeing gains of between 1% and 1.8%. The financial sector also rebounded, breaking a three-day slump with a 0.8% increase. Notably, the "Big Four" banks reported gains ranging from 0.6% to 1.3%.

  • Mining Companies’ Performance:
    • Rio Tinto: +1%
    • BHP Group: +1.8%
    • Fortescue Metals: +1.6%

Energy Stocks Recovering

Energy stocks joined the upward trend, rising by 1.8% in response to a rebound in oil prices following Monday’s heavy sell-off. Notable increases were seen in major oil and gas firms, with Woodside Energy up 0.6% and Santos climbing by 2.1%.

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Interest Rate Speculations

The recent market turbulence has led traders to speculate about the potential for the Reserve Bank of Australia to reduce interest rates significantly, with a 20% probability of a 50 basis points cut in May. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index also climbed by 1.1%, finishing at 11,902.64 points. New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis reassured that the country is well-prepared to manage the effects of U.S. tariffs, having implemented suitable policies to navigate global market uncertainties.

By keeping an eye on key sectors and the anticipated economic shifts, investors are navigating this complex landscape with cautious optimism as they adjust to the evolving situation.

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