Shares of IDFC First Bank experienced a decline of over 2% on Friday, as investors braced for the upcoming Q4 results, set to be announced on Saturday, April 26. The stock fell by as much as 2.88%, reaching a price of ₹65.68 on the BSE. As the private sector bank prepares to disclose its financial performance for the fourth quarter of FY2025, along with the full fiscal year 2024-2025, market participants are keenly watching the developments.

Anticipated Q4 Results

On April 26, the IDFC First Bank board is scheduled to evaluate and approve the financial outcomes for the quarter ending March 31, 2025. Additionally, the board will contemplate any potential dividend recommendations during this meeting. A regulatory filing from the bank highlighted the agenda, stating, “The Board will, inter-alia, also discuss and consider the recommendation of dividend, if any, for the Financial Year 2024-25.”

Market Holiday Impacts Investor Activity

With the stock market closed on Saturday, investors are aware they have only today to purchase shares of IDFC First Bank before the critical quarterly results are released. Here’s a look at what analysts are predicting for the Q4 performance.

Expected Financial Highlights

• Net Profit Forecast: Analysts predict a notable year-on-year decline in the bank’s net profit for the January-March 2025 quarter, primarily due to increased provisions. According to Axis Securities, the net profit could plummet by 46.2%, dropping to ₹389 crore, compared to ₹724 crore in the same quarter last year.

• Net Interest Income: Despite the profit drop, net interest income (NII) is projected to rise by 12.8%, reaching ₹5,039 crore, up from ₹4,469 crore YoY.

• Provisions and Asset Quality: The provisions for Q4FY25 are expected to remain high at ₹1,359 crore, marking an 88.2% increase from the previous year. The Gross Non-Performing Assets (GNPA) ratio is anticipated to increase to 2% from 1.9% in the preceding quarter.

Growth and Stability Prospects

Despite the financial challenges, IDFC First Bank is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory in both advances and deposits. Analysts estimate a 24.7% growth in deposits and a 20.4% rise in loan growth for the quarter ending March 2025.

Investment Outlook: Should You Buy?

Currently, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has assigned a ‘Neutral’ rating for IDFC First Bank shares, with a target price set at ₹65. The recent uptick in share price from ₹54 suggests that a price correction may be limited.

• Support and Resistance Levels: Ruchit Jain, Vice President of Equity Technical Research at Motilal Oswal, advises a “buy on dips” strategy, noting strong support around ₹60-62 and setting a target of ₹71.

• Consolidation Phase: Technical Analyst Riyank Arora from Mehta Equities Ltd observes that the stock is currently consolidating, with critical support at ₹64 and resistance near ₹70. A breakthrough above ₹70 could lead to an upward move toward ₹74-76.

Performance Recap

IDFC First Bank shares have surged 15% in the past month, yet they are down 21% year-over-year. Over the last two years, the stock has gained 12% and achieved a remarkable 195% increase over the past five years. As of 11:30 AM, IDFC First Bank shares were trading 2.23% lower at ₹66.12 on the BSE.

In conclusion, while IDFC First Bank faces some headwinds, the upcoming Q4 results will be crucial in determining the bank’s future trajectory and investor sentiment.