Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), spearheaded by Mukesh Ambani, is set to unveil its earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter on April 25, 2025. This announcement follows a board meeting where financial results and potential dividends for shareholders will be discussed. Analysts from Goldman Sachs project that while RIL’s core EBITDA for Q4 may show minimal sequential growth, there will be significant interest in the performance of its retail business and the anticipated effects of tariff hikes on Jio’s revenue streams.

Insights on RIL’s Q4 Performance

Goldman Sachs forecasts a promising growth trajectory for RIL’s retail segment, estimating a 6.5% year-over-year rise in revenues, particularly in contrast to the declines seen in the previous quarters. In Q2, revenues dropped by 8.5%, while Q3 saw a marginal 5.7% increase. Meanwhile, Jio is expected to report a 4% quarter-on-quarter growth, which outpaces its competitor Bharti by 200 basis points.

Future Projections for Retail and Energy Segments

As RIL prepares for its quarterly update, analysts are eager to hear about the company’s guidance for retail growth leading into FY26 and updates on its new energy initiatives. RIL aims to commence solar module production by the end of 2024 and ramp up battery production by mid-2025.

Goldman Sachs also commented on RIL’s valuation, noting a slight improvement in its Net Asset Value (NAV) discount, although it remains wider than historical averages due to a stagnant EBITDA outlook for FY25. The firm anticipates a rebound in earnings growth during FY26, driven by:

• A projected 12% increase in retail EBITDA.
• Jio’s earnings growth expected to soar by 24%, aided by another potential tariff increase in the latter half of 2025.
• An improvement in refining margins as global refinery capacity is expected to decrease.

Key Highlights from the Upcoming Earnings Report

In an official regulatory announcement, RIL confirmed that it would disclose its Q4 financial results on April 25. This meeting will also address:

• Both standalone and consolidated financial results for the year ending March 31, 2025.
• Plans for raising funds through the issuance of redeemable non-convertible debentures.
• Recommendations for dividends on equity shares.

Sector-Specific Expectations

Energy Sector: Analysts predict a sequential decline in RIL’s energy segment, particularly due to weaker performance in oil-to-chemical (O2C) earnings. Goldman Sachs anticipates a drop in net Gross Refining Margin (GRM) to around $9.0/bbl in Q4 due to lower Singapore refining product cracks.

Jio: For Jio Infocomm, Goldman Sachs projects revenues of ₹305 billion, marking a 4% increase from the previous quarter and an 18% year-over-year growth. The firm expects Jio to add approximately 9 million subscribers this quarter as it recovers from previous tariff-related churn.

Retail: In the retail sector, RIL is forecasted to achieve a 6.5% increase in sales growth, with improving trends attributed to restructuring efforts and an enhanced focus on trendy, value-driven products.

Monitoring Key Developments

Investors will be particularly attentive to several critical developments:

• Updates regarding potential IPO plans for Reliance Jio, targeting a ₹40,000 crore valuation.
• Announcements related to the IPO for Reliance Retail.
• Details about the dividend declaration.
• Insights into RIL’s new partnerships, including the recently announced collaboration with Starlink, and future ventures with OpenAI and Meta.

A Look Back at Q3 Earnings

In its previous earnings report for Q3 FY25, RIL achieved a profit of ₹21,804 crore, reflecting an 11.88% increase year-over-year. The total revenue from operations reached ₹243,865 crore, marking a 6.97% rise compared to the same period last year. During the conference, Chairman Mukesh Ambani highlighted strong growth in digital services and retail sectors, driven by increased consumer engagement and strategic operational enhancements.

As RIL gears up for another quarter, all eyes will be on these financial results and the potential implications for its various business segments.