The Indian stock market is set to experience a challenging start on Monday, with both the Sensex and Nifty 50 indices anticipated to open lower. This outlook stems from unfavorable global market signals, as indicated by trends on the Gift Nifty, which is trading at approximately 23,800, reflecting a drop of around 51 points from its previous close. Investors are bracing for significant developments, including upcoming Q4 financial results, US tariff updates, and ongoing trade discussions between the US and Iran, along with the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire situation.

Market Recap: Key Developments

Last Friday, the Indian stock market remained closed in observance of Good Friday. However, on Thursday, the market showcased impressive gains, with the Nifty 50 closing above the 23,800 mark. The Sensex surged by 1,508.91 points (1.96%), wrapping up at 78,553.20, while the Nifty 50 increased by 414.45 points (1.77%), finishing at 23,851.65.

Sensex Insights and Predictions

The Sensex made a remarkable leap, surpassing the 78,500 level last week and forming a bullish pattern on the weekly charts. Amol Athawale, Vice President of Technical Research at Kotak Securities, noted that while the market appears bullish in the short term, temporary overbought conditions may lead to some range-bound trading. He highlighted critical support levels at 77,400 and 76,900, while resistance could emerge between 79,000 and 79,600. However, a drop below 76,900 might signal a shift in market sentiment, prompting traders to reconsider their positions.

Nifty 50: Analyzing the Trends

The Nifty 50 saw a significant breakout on Thursday, closing up by 414 points. Nagaraj Shetti, a Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, remarked that the formation of a long bullish candle signals a potential trend reversal after a period of decline. The unfilled upside gap on the weekly chart suggests a bullish breakout that could signify the start of a robust upward movement. Immediate resistance is projected around 24,550, while support is set at 23,600.

Om Mehra, a Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, emphasized the sustained upward momentum in the Nifty 50, which is now trading comfortably above all short-term moving averages. The index’s ability to surpass the previous resistance of 23,870 indicates a resilient market, with the next significant resistance at the 200-day moving average around 24,050.

Bank Nifty’s Performance and Future Outlook

The Bank Nifty also demonstrated strong upward momentum, climbing 2.21% to close at 54,290.20 on Thursday. According to Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP of Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates Ltd, the Bank Nifty’s breakout above the 52,800 level now establishes this point as immediate support. If maintained, this could lead the index towards the 54,500 to 55,000 range. A “buy on dips” strategy is recommended for traders.

Additionally, Mehra noted that the Bank Nifty is trading above all key moving averages and has surpassed previous resistance levels, reinforcing a positive outlook. The daily RSI remains strong, above 70, indicating robust momentum in the market.

Conclusion: What Lies Ahead

As traders prepare for the week’s trading sessions, the focus will be on how global cues and domestic economic indicators affect market dynamics. Keeping an eye on support and resistance levels will be crucial for making informed trading decisions in the upcoming days.

For more insights on stock market trends and predictions, stay tuned as we navigate these changing financial landscapes.